China vs The World, the Flute and the Sudarshan Chakra

Deng Xiao Peng, the architect of modern China, speaking at the special session of the United Nations on 10^th April 1974, said:

“China is a socialist country, and a developing country as well. China belongs to the Third World. Consistently following Chairman Mao’s teachings, the Chinese Government and people firmly support all oppressed peoples and oppressed nations in their struggle to win or defend national independence, develop the national economy and oppose colonialism, imperialism and hegemonism. This is our bounden internationalist duty. China is not a superpower, nor will she ever seek to be one. What is a superpower? A superpower is an imperialist country which everywhere subjects other countries to its aggression, interference, control, subversion or plunder and strives for world hegemony. If capitalism is restored in a big socialist country, it will inevitably become a superpower. The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, which has been carried out in China in recent years, and the campaign of criticizing Lin Piao and Confucius now under way throughout China, are both aimed at preventing capitalist restoration and ensuring that socialist China will never change her colour and will always stand by the oppressed peoples and oppressed nations. If one day China should change her colour and turn into a superpower, if she too should play the tyrant in the world, and everywhere subject others to her bullying, aggression and exploitation, the people of the world should identify her as social-imperialism, expose it, oppose it and work together with the Chinese people to overthrow it”. (https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/deng-xiaoping/1974/04/10.htm)

Important words to think about given the positioning China in the World today.

President Xi Jin Ping, who has positioned himself in the same exalted status as Chairman Mao and Deng Xiao Peng, should be a worried leader and under serious pressure.

His traditional play book strategies are not working. The World leaders are not bowing down to his pressure tactics. The World citizens are willing to shun the Chinese products like never before. The carefully crafted image of the man and his machines is beginning to tarnish rapidly. China is left with their all-weather ally Pakistan and North Korea, both of whom will do as their master instructs.

Over the past year, there have been a series of challenges faced by the Chinese economy.

1.    Wuhan Virus (Kung Flu as per President Trump), that has created devastation in the World. No one knows how many people have died in China.

2.    The Chinese economy is in trouble partly because of the shut down and partly because of the anti-China sentiment among buyers around the World.

3.    Challenges within the CCP, specially after Xi’s “President for Life” amendment of their “constitution.”

The other significant piece of the equation is Xi’s dream project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which is the cornerstone of his policy of economic colonisation using debt as a major tool. Almost every country that signed up with China for the BRI has now found out that there is nothing in it for them. China’s cheque book diplomacy is facing serious resistance.

One major section of the BRI goes through Baluchistan (China Pakistan Economic Corridor), which is in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. Therefore, rebels in Baluchistan and India will do whatever it takes to ensure that this CPEC project will not be allowed to be completed. This will hurt both China and Pakistan.

The most well accepted form of diverting attention, from time immemorial, is to start a war / create trouble with neighbours to draw attention away from internal problems, in the hope the nationalistic feelings will divert the attention of the citizens. This is what we are seeing happening with all 14 countries that have borders with China or with those that share international waters with China. From Bhutan (for an animal reserve) to Russia (for the entire Vladivostok region), from Mongolia to Japan, from Australia to Myanmar. China has reopened old issues everywhere.

All countries, affected by China, are now speaking up. South East Asian countries too, who have traditionally kept quiet, have now spoken up against China for the South China Seas.

India has had a long-standing dispute with China on our 3488 kms long border. The British had defined a border between India and Tibet in 1914 called the “McMahon Line” which is called the Line of Actual Control (LAC). After annexing Tibet, China refused to recognise this agreement. Therefore, China keeps claiming various parts of India including the entire North East of India (7 states of India) as their own.

In the past, Indian politicians supported by their able bureaucrats, for various reasons, did not challenge China but preferred to “let things lie” in the hope that somehow, good sense would prevail. They knew that China was incorrigible, but it is always easier to sweep uncomfortable situations under the carpet. This led to large land areas of India being taken over by China and now claimed as their own. India has supported Hong Kong and Taiwan at the UN and is asking for an investigation into the cause of the virus. It should be a matter of time before India raises the matter of the autonomy of Tibet.

With the recent clash on 15^th June 2020 in the Galwan Valley, the Chinese had thought that they would keep “creeping” towards India like they had done in the past. Under Mr Modi, this was not only stopped but rebuffed as well. While 20 Indian soldiers were killed, I have heard senior officials that over 75 Chinese soldiers were killed by an enraged India Army who sought retribution after they saw their Commanding Officer killed. Stories of one Sikh soldier killing 12 people with his “kirpan” before being martyred are doing the rounds. This is how myths are born, and rightly so.

The Chinese are not used to being pushed back.

They have survived with their self-created myth of being the World’s largest and most powerful Army. Can an Army, which is probably being run by the power of the gun and Communist ideology battle against the World’s best trained Indian Army who treat their land as their mother and are willing to happily sacrifice their lives to defend it?

In the past, our politicians had tied the hands of the Indian Army behind their backs. Prime Minister Modi has given freedom to the Army to respond as they deem fit. Mr Modi’s comment in Ladakh, that India knows how to play Lord Krishna’s flute and knows how to use His Sudarshan Chakra clearly indicates the complete change in India’s foreign policy vis-à-vis China. Not only do we know how to make an aggressor dance to our tune, we also know how to use the deadliest weapons to protect ourselves.

It is interesting to see how most countries have come out in support of India. France has also offered to send their ground troops to support India! Russia is expediting the delivery of 21 MIG 29 and 12 Sukhoi aircraft as well as the World’s most advanced S-400 surface-to-air missile systems. USA has positioned 3 aircraft carriers in the waters around India to Japan and is expediting the despatch of helicopters on priority.

Opening up so many flanks at the same time is either a well-crafted strategy of President Xi or this could be regional satraps within China starting to flex their muscles independently. If the latter, then the World needs to worry. Whether this lead to the balkanisation of China, similar to USSR is anybody’s guess?

Are the days of President Xi numbered? Will he be given a face saving exit? Is there another group of ambitious and aggressive young leaders within the party who are plotting to claim the “Dragon Throne”, to give a different direction to the country?

Is it time for the leadership of China to go back to the prophetic words of Deng Xiao Peng and learn to live with the World instead of trying to control it?

Only time will tell.

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The author is a CEO Coach, a Storyteller and an Angel Investor. He hosts the highly successful podcast titled The Brand Called You. A keen political observer and commentator, he is also the founder Chairman of Guardian Pharmacies. He is the author of 6 best-selling books and writes for several online newspapers.

Watch and listen to our podcasts at www.tbcy.in | www.equationcoaching.com

Twitter: @gargashutosh

Instagram: ashutoshgarg56

Blog: ashutoshgargin.wordpress.com | ashutoshgarg56.blogspot.com

The “Paper” Dragon Dance

An old Chinese story titled “The Wolf of Zhongshan,” talks about a wolf which had been shot by a hunter. As it was running away injured, it met a kind-hearted person who saved the wolf from the hunter. After the hunter left, the wolf said to the kind-hearted person, "You have saved me. Now I am hungry. Since you have come this far helping me, let me eat you."

Why has China, the second largest economy of the World, suddenly starting flex its muscles? Why are they opening so many flanks with so many countries simultaneously? There is an economic, political or territorial issue that has been raised with several countries, almost simultaneously. What does China hope to accomplish when its own economy has been ravaged by the Wuhan Virus?

From time immemorial, world leaders, under pressure because of a weak economy or a weak political position, have waved the flag of National Security and done sabre rattling to divert attention from their internal challenges. Are we seeing the same in China today?

Let us look at the challenges China is facing:

1.    Credibility Challenge: China has a serious credibility issue with the rest of the World, reeling with the impact of the Corona pandemic. Political leaders around the World have started blaming China for not being transparent about the origin of this virus. What should worry China is that the average individual in each country is angry with China and the first reaction will come against “Made in China” goods. This is an emotional and a sentimental reaction and once deep-rooted, will be difficult to change in a short time. Calls to stop buying Chinese products and even to uninstall Chinese apps should be a cause for serious concern in China.

2.    Diplomatic Challenge: When there is when there is pressure diplomacy normally comes to the rescue.

a.    Chinese officials have been reacting with threats as can be seen in their stopping imports from Australia.

b.    They have been threatening Taiwan and there is cause for worry in Taiwan in case China decides to unilaterally take military action.

c.     The recent amendment of the National Security law to govern Hong Kong is another case in point.

d.    Racist comments against African people in parts of China has resulted in a reaction from Africa.

e.    Finally, the Chinese government officials are aware that US elections are round the corner and therefore understandably rhetoric will be high and loud. This is the time when they need to keep quiet and wait for the elections to be over. Instead Chinese officials are you issuing threats of retaliation to America when they comment or support Hong Kong or Taiwan.

3.    Geographical and Territorial Challenge: China has always wanted to expand its boundaries by attempting to take over lands of other countries that it claims.

a.    Gathering a number of military personnel on the border of India and raising territorial and boundary issues at this point of time is one more flank that China could have avoided opening. After encroaching into Indian territory, the Chinese found that unlike in the past, Indian political resolve was strong, and the Indian army pushed back. This resulted in some fisticuffs though no damage was done other than to the Chinese ego. Soon thereafter, the Chinese leadership started to wave the peace flag.

b.    The Spratly Islands is a contentious issue in the South China Sea.

c.     The China Pakistan Economic Corridor that goes through Indian territory will be the first casualty.

d.    The One Band One Road (OBOR) project has also become a question mark in most countries. Citizens of these countries were expecting large investments into their country, but they can see they will get nothing. China is sending its own equipment, its own people and its own material for these roads. Even the food their workers eat comes from China!

4.    Economic Challenge: China has powered its way into every nation given its financial might and during this pandemic its companies, supported by State Institutions, are looking for cheap acquisition of lucrative companies around the World. This has been picked up my most countries and restrictions are being imposed to ensure that good companies are not sold because of the pandemic.

a.    The financial cost of the virus to the World economy varies between US$ 5 trillion to US$ 9 trillion. Some countries are threatening to recover this from China. While it is unlikely that any compensation will ever be paid, the sentiment behind these claims is more important.

b.    Most international companies in China are starting to evaluate how they will re-engineer their supply chains so that they are less dependent on manufacture of their products In China. This will have serious impact on China which relies on mass production.

c.     China has launched a trial of digital yuan in Shenzhen, Suzhou and Chengdu, and the Xiong’an New Area. It will be interesting to see the reaction of the US Government as it will see this move as a threat to the US Dollar, the only global currency. The only other person who had challenged the US Dollar when he started trading oil in Euros was Saddam Hussain.

No one likes a bully, and no one likes to be threatened. Trade and commerce are always a two-way street. There could be trade imbalances between countries and these can be corrected. No country can stop buying from another and assume that there will not be a reaction from the other country.

China is powerful because the World started to buy its products putting money in the hands of the Chinese citizens thus powering their own economy. If the factory of the World stops selling its goods, the impact on the country is clear and obvious.

President Xi Jinping has asked his country “to make mental and material preparations for changes in the external environment that will last a relatively long period of time.” This could mean that China will be more aggressive and confront their challenges with retaliation rather than conciliation and cooperation.

Has China got caught up with its own hype of having a large economy (which is slowing down), of having a large well-fed and satisfied army (which could be reluctant to get into a fight) and an invincible leader (who could be facing serious challenges from within)?

Only time will tell.

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The author is a CEO Coach, a Storyteller and an Angel Investor. He hosts the highly successful podcast titled The Brand Called You. A keen political observer and commentator, he is also the founder Chairman of Guardian Pharmacies. He is the author of 6 best-selling books and writes for several online newspapers.

Watch and listen to our podcasts at www.tbcy.in | www.equationcoaching.com

Twitter: @gargashutosh

Instagram: ashutoshgarg56

Blog: ashutoshgargin.wordpress.com | ashutoshgarg56.blogspot.com

The New Normal – Necessary, Essential, Desirable

Corona Virus or Covid 19 has become a part of our lives since the beginning of the new decade.

We have now reached day 28 of the nationwide lockdown and as most of us go through incredible amount of adjustments during the lock down, I am sure that most of us are also thinking about how our lives will need to change once the lock down has been lifted.

Every product or service in our lives will now need to be categorised into Necessary, Essential or Desirable.

• Necessary will include food items and household items needed to sustain and maintain our lives.
• Essential will be good to have services and products which could improve our lives.
• Desirable will be products that are nice to have but those we can do without. Those that do not have any impact on improving our lives.

Everyone’s definition of necessary, essential and desirable will be different. These will be based on our unique perspectives of the needs of our families.

All of us will have our own prescriptions and our own ways of coping with the challenges that we have already faced but more importantly, are likely to face in the coming few months and years.

Much as people would like to believe that a cure or a vaccine is imminent, it is important to understand that the process of getting a new vaccine is very long. Once the first set of tests have been successful on animals, they need to be tested on human beings. Getting Government approvals on human beings is expedited but if this does not work, most Governments will stop the approvals and wait for “someone else” to take risks with their citizens. Even if the trials on human beings is successful, the time to commercialise a vaccine and make sufficient doses available for the World population is another challenge.

Most of us would have done a lot of introspection. We most certainly, would have appreciated the dramatic reduction in air pollution, clear skies, the last “blood moon”, dolphin sightings near Mumbai and the pristine waters of the river Ganga.

Given all the time we have been spending with our family and more importantly with ourselves, we have all had a chance to do a reality check of what is important in our lives. It is unlikely that most of us would have spent so much uninterrupted time with our families for such a long period of time.

We would have learned to give sufficient space to our family members in our homes. We would also have started to appreciate how easy it is for most of us spend time with ourselves.

Most of us would have also learned to do most of our work at home. While it is true that women have had to face the brunt of this lockdown in terms of the work to be done, all of us must have certainly understood what needs to be done at home and in our own ways, we must have started to help.

It is only when the lockdown is removed, will we begin to understand and evaluate the huge impact this would have had on our nation’s economy. Many people will lose their jobs, and many will see salary cuts. Almost everyone will not get an increment or a bonus. Our EMI’s, which have been deferred for a period of 3 months will need to be paid and there are likely to be serious defaults and repossessions.

What are the areas that will see an impact?

1. Social distancing, a term we had not thought of a few months back is now a reality. We have all become conscious and will be very careful before going into large crowds. In our own ways, we would have started to establish communication boundaries with our neighbours and friends, and these will stay well into the foreseeable future. What social distancing will do to malls, theatres, sports and to melas is anybody’s guess.
2. Focus on working from home will become much more viable. This will have an impact on office space, transportation and eating out. We have seen the ease of video conferencing. I have done my yoga classes and taken my flute lesson online and see no reason why this cannot be continued in the future.
3. Home entertainment will increase as we have already seen. However advertising of products will reduce since people will not buy easily raising a question on economic viability of the programming.
4. Most of us will start looking for deals in everything we shop for giving an opportunity to retailers to launch their “white label” products.
5. Most people will start cutting back on non-essential items. Purchase decisions for non-essential items will be deferred for as long as possible.
6. Travel will change completely. People will be careful about getting into aircrafts and cruise ships will struggle to find passengers. This will have a serious impact on tourism, and everyone associated with this sector.
7. Luxury items will see very serious demand curtailment.

While I do hope that we will be able to get back to the pre-Corona days, it is increasingly looking more and more difficult.

Over a period of time Corona will become another kind of annual ailment. Not very different from cough, cold or influenza. Till all of us build the required immunity, we need to practice social distancing and stay safe.

We have to adjust to the new normal and we have to accept the new reality fast. The time to indulge in wishful thinking is over.

The most common question we will ask ourselves before taking any decision, be it necessary, essential or desirable, will probably be,

“Do I really need this?”

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The author is a CEO Coach, a Storyteller and an Angel Investor. He hosts the highly successful podcast titled The Brand Called You. A keen political observer and commentator, he is also the founder Chairman of Guardian Pharmacies. He is the author of 6 best-selling books and writes for several online newspapers.

Watch and listen to our podcasts at www.tbcy.in | www.equationcoaching.com

• Twitter: @gargashutosh
• Instagram: ashutoshgarg56
• Blog: ashutoshgargin.wordpress.com | ashutoshgarg56.blogspot.com

Delhi Elections 2020 - A time for introspection for BJP

One more loss in Delhi and it is certainly time for the BJP leadership to do some serious introspection on why, after such a sweeping win in the Lok Sabha elections in mid-2019, they have not received the same support at State elections.

It is worth thinking about why the electorate has changed its mind in less than a year. The BJP leadership at the State level in Delhi should do some serious introspection and compare the results of 2015 and 2020 elections. After an incredible Lok Sabha victory in 2014, they lost badly in 2015. The story is no different between 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2020 Delhi State elections.

Clearly, the electorate knows their mind and they know what they want from their politicians at the National level and at the State level. Yes, the people have huge expectations from the Prime Minister and his team for the country. They have similar expectations from their local leaders but in matters that affect their daily lives.

They want the infrastructure in their community and town to be as they expect. They want their local politician to address and resolve these challenges. Mr Kejriwal and his party did a lot of work for Delhi in the past 5 years and this did not go unnoticed. Running down or challenging achievements in education and healthcare was a poor strategy of the BJP. The electorate did not believe the BJP leaders.

Let us look at some reasons why the BJP is consistently losing elections in most States.

National Issues are different from State Issue. National Security is critical, and every step taken by the Prime Minister has been supported and applauded by the people. At the state elections, the people do not want to hear about Pakistan bashing or the achievements of the country in the international arena.

Matters like Section 370, Section 35A are important for the Nation. However, these are not for discussion at the state level.

State Politicians need to deliver. The central government needs the support of the states. Politicians at the state need to deliver to their constituents. The BJP leadership at the state level must learn to win elections on its own and stop relying only on the senior most leaders. State politicians are fighting for the assembly elections and not for the Lok Sabha. Therefore, they need to depend on their work and not that of the Central Government. They state leaders must work to strengthen the hands of the Prime Minister and not constantly look for a free ride. They should bring in the big guns for support and not to win the election.

If they want good health and good education, is this unreasonable? If they want a pollution free Delhi, they expect work to be done. If the electorate wants free electricity and free water so be it.

The electorate understands the capabilities of the Prime Minister and his team. However, when they hear their local leaders wax eloquent on national issues without bothering to talk of local issues, they know these politicians are simply not delivering what is expected of them.

Alliance Partners of the NDA must be taken into confidence in every election even if it means that the BJP has to lose a battle to win the war. The alliance partners know that the BJP is a strong party and yet they also know that they play a vital role in BJP’s plans at the State level. Alienating alliance partner just before State Elections can never be a wise strategy and this normally starts with the bravado of the local State level leaders of the BJP.

Unless the BJP can carry its partners, they will continue to bite the dust as is evident from Maharashtra.

Loudmouths of the BJP need to be told to shut up before every election. The people are tired of the unnecessary rhetoric from some BJP leaders. They need to be told to stay quiet if they do not have anything constructive to say. Negative statements are not supported by anyone (though the politician who makes such statements may get some applause from the community they are addressing).

Abusive language is not respected by anyone in India. Why do junior BJP politicians not see and learn from the dignity of their senior leaders? Such loud mouths do more harm than good to BJP’s campaign.

BJP’s Communication must improve. Traditionally, the communication of the BJP has been very poor. The spokespersons are the same for national issues and state issues who keep pushing the national agenda in all debates without understanding the challenges. If the discussion is about the State elections, the BJP spokespersons will try and manoeuvre the debate to a national issue. BJP needs a separate set of leaders who will address National issues and State issues. The BJP cannot have the same set of spokespersons on every channel on every issue.

Citizens Amendment Act has been cleverly morphed into the National Population Register and the National Register of Citizens and the BJP has not been able to communicate the difference clearly. Varying comments from Central Leadership is also being used very effectively by the opposition leaders who have very successfully managed to confuse the masses.

For the moment, the BJP can take some comfort from the fact that their vote share has increased in the Delhi elections but unless they change fast, the next round of State elections will have a similar sad story for the BJP.

The Prime Minister spoke of the report card of his Government during the Lok Sabha elections and he was given a resounding mandate. What applies at the Centre applies equally at the State.

The BJP State leaders must show their report card and not that of the Prime Minister and that of the BJP Government at the Centre.

Unless the BJP is in power in States, they will find it increasingly difficult to implement their plans and policies.

The harsh truth is that no one remembers who came second.

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The author is a CEO Coach, a Storyteller and an Angel Investor. He hosts the highly successful podcast titled The Brand Called You. A keen political observer and commentator, he is also the founder Chairman of Guardian Pharmacies. He is the author of 6 best-selling books and writes for several online newspapers.

Watch and listen to our podcasts at www.tbcy.in | www.equationcoaching.com

• Twitter: @gargashutosh
• Instagram: ashutoshgarg56
• Blog: ashutoshgargin.wordpress.com | ashutoshgarg56.blogspot.com