Gujarat Elections 2017 – Who will Win?

The Gujarat elections for 2017 are round the corner. Less than 8 days are left for the first round of polling and less than a week for campaigning to stop.

In 2012, the BJP won 116 seats out of 182 while the Congress won 60 seats. The state had a record voter turnout of 71.32%. BJP’s vote share was 47.9% while the Congress had a vote share of 38.9%. The gap between the BJP and the Congress vote share narrowed from 9.49% in 2007 to 9% in 2012 primarily because of Keshubhai Patel, an old Congress Stalwart setting up a new party and taking away 3.6% of the vote share.

Gujarat has consistently out-performed most states in terms of GDP growth. Infrastructure in the state is amongst the best in the country. Out of 18,066 villages, 17,856 villages, account for 98.84% of the population have paved roads. Based on some statistics, law and order in Gujarat would place it among the better states of our country. More investments are possibly needed in education and healthcare but once again, the state would be one of the better ones in India. Where else in India would one see well-paved and beautifully lit riverbanks like Ahmedabad and Surat?

Both the major parties, BJP and Congress, are sparing no efforts in getting their viewpoint across to the voters who are enjoying their “5-yearly” attention from the political workers and the press. The Prime Minister is leading the charge on behalf of the BJP. Understandably, he wants to win big from his home state.

Rahul Gandhi is putting in every effort to throw all kinds of allegations, more often than not asking completely illogical questions, thus questioning the basic intelligence of the Gujarati voter. He has promised to waive all loans within 10 days of coming to power (I wonder why this is not treated as a financial incentive to voters by the Election Commission).

The Congress vice president is leaving no “holy stone” unturned and is seeking the blessings of every Hindu God. He has probably visited more temples in Gujarat the last few months than he must have over the past few years or before any other state election! After all, he is expected to be crowned President of the Congress party the day after the Gujarat elections are announced.

While BJP is questioning why Rahul Gandhi’s staff signed his name in the register for non-Hindus at Somnath Temple, Kapil Sibal has taken the term “ridiculous” to a new level where Shri Sibal has classified the prime minister as a person who is not a Hindu!! On the other hand, Congress spokespersons are scrambling to show old photographs and out shouting one another to prove their leader is a Brahmin and a Shaivite!

Then there is Hardik Patel who has brought the patidar reservation (whether or not this is permissible) to the forefront knowing that they have a small selfish voter base, looking for reservations, but a loud share of noise through some friendly media persons. Finally, AAP is sitting on the side-lines, hoping to be a spoiler in the elections since they know they have no hope of winning a single seat.

Like every election, the television debates sound the death knell for the loser only to forget what they have said once the results are out.  

Then, of course, there is the voter who knows the power he / she can exercise through their ballot. Yes, the voters have been hurt by the demonetisation but they recognise the need for this significant step taken by the Prime Minister and support him. Yes, they have seen pain from the implementation of the GST but they can also see the long term benefits of this single tax in the country. And yes, there is the anti-incumbency factor in the state.

So how would a voter from Gujarat react?

Would they vote for BJP as they have done for so many years and continue to repose their trust in Prime Minister Modi? Or would they vote for the Congress and hope that the completely untested Rahul Gandhi may use a magic wand and deliver in the State of Gujarat something that he has failed to do in his Amethi constituency? Or would they exercise their right and vote for NOTA “None of the above”? There will also be a small impact of Hardik Patel, Aam Aadmi Party and the other parties but none of these will have a significant impact on the BJP.

I believe that, supportive as he may be, the voter in Gujarat is upset about demonetization and GST and wants to show his dissent without hurting the BJP. He may not have liked the idea of all his business coming out into the open and in public domain through GST filings. Yet he recognises that the only sustainable hope for India and Gujarat is the BJP and Modi. Definitely not the Congress and Rahul Gandhi.

The voter, upset with the BJP, will lodge his protest by not going to vote. This will be the voter’s way of punishing the BJP and expressing his anger. So, we will see a drop in the voter turnout in these elections. The vote share difference between the BJP and the Congress may narrow further by a couple of points, which will become the subject of many debates and articles, albeit for 2022.

Though the BJP vote share may drop, we will see an increase in the number of seats that the BJP will win. The system of our democracy is the “first one past the post wins the election” and there can be no doubt that this will be the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 

*******************

The author is the founder Chairman of Guardian Pharmacies and the author of 5 best-selling books, Reboot. Reinvent. Rewire: Managing Retirement in the 21st Century; The Corner Office; An Eye for an Eye; The Buck Stops Here - Learnings of a #Startup Entrepreneur and The Buck Stops Here – My Journey from a Manager to an Entrepreneur.

Twitter: @gargashutosh

Instagram: ashutoshgarg56

Blog: ashutoshgargin.wordpress.com | ashutoshgarg56.blogspot.com

Retirement and the relationship with your Spouse - Part 1

When you retire, you switch bosses. From the one who hired you to the one who married you. As someone said, Marriage is like a fine wine, if tended properly It just gets better with age

As you reach retirement, you have probably been married for almost three decades. You understand one another well and yet both of you have been so busy with your respective careers that you have not really had the time for one another. Through your married life, you have respected one another’s right to privacy and stayed out of one another’s way, brushing tough issues under the carpet. Now you are looking at the prospect of spending 24 hours a day with your partner of three decades and you are left wondering if you really know the other person as well as you had thought you did.

For many unhappy couples, the problem starts when they don’t have the same expectations of retirement and then it gets further exacerbated when they don’t talk about it. For some people, this is a long-awaited time for new adventures, new or deeper connections with loved ones and discovering a new purpose. For others, it means a lot of time relaxing, in the hammock, at the computer or on the golf course.

To not drive each other crazy, couples need a mutually acceptable game plan for the future. They need to think about and discuss how they want to spend their time, including how much time they want to spend together. These talks should begin between both of you long before retirement.

Marital strife is very common in the first few years after retirement. The stress in a marriage is likely to be more intense if one partner retires before the other. Marriage is an institution that needs to be worked on throughout one’s life and not put off till retirement. Many retired couples spend their remaining year’s together, miserable because they cannot adjust with one another. There are so many of our friends who have chosen to lead separate lives or seek other partners once their children have settled and they are approaching the age of retirement.

Even marriages that have been relatively good during the years of employment often struggle somewhat when husbands and wives spend most of every day with each other.

That's because retirement changes so many aspects of married life and adjustments must be made.

“Retired Husband Syndrome” (RHS) is a much discussed subject in America, Europe and Japan and several papers have been written on the subject. Some Japanese women describe their retired husbands as “Sodaigomi” or “oversized garbage”. American and European women must have similar words. Life changes for both when the man retires and serious adjustments have to be made in the early years post retirement.

It is not uncommon to see couples who have been married through their working lives decide to have a “grey” divorce post retirement. Problems that would normally have been swept under the “blanket of work” now surface since there is much more time available and couples find they have no choice but to confront these problems.

If you want a quick measure of how compatible you and your spouse are, try being together 24 hours a day, seven days a week. The chickens will come home to roost. That's the test that couples usually take immediately following retirement. The years that a husband and wife have spent creating independent lifestyles comes back to haunt them on that day, because they are faced with the fact that they have little in common. Throughout their married lives, they failed to create common interests - they did nothing to create compatibility. Rather than building a relationship based on mutual respect and sensitivity, they ignored each other's feelings, missing out on a lifetime of marital happiness.

As a friend who had just retired commented “Before marriage my wife would ask me to help and I would do so reluctantly. Now she tells me what I should be doing because I have nothing else to do and I resent her telling me this.”

From a woman’s perspective, the saying "After your husband's retirement, you'll have twice as much husband, and half as much money" is putting it mildly. As one old lady said “Sometimes I wake up grumpy. Other days I let him sleep”!

One of the biggest challenges I have seen with friends who have retired is the time that they now have to spend with their spouse. For most people who would have been married for a little over 3 decades spending time with one’s spouse was first with children till they went away to college or work and later between the two of you but with the comfort of spending time over a cup of tea in the morning and over dinner at night. Remember that after almost three decades of marriage, neither of you is in a position to try and change the other persons thinking!

The thought of spending the entire day at home is a challenge that would seem insurmountable. How would both of you go through 24 hours a day in the same space and yet try and give sufficient space to one another.

“I wonder how we will survive post retirement” is a common statement I have heard from both husbands and wives.

Making this adjustment between the two of you is a challenge that needs to be overcome. If your spouse has been a working spouse and has not yet retired, you will need to accept that you may have to take on more work responsibility at home. If your spouse is not a working spouse then you will have to start to share some of the work at home that you have normally not done in the past. Couples discover that they were not as compatible as they thought with one another as they start to get in each other’s way throughout the day!

My wife said, “What are you doing today?”

I said, “Nothing”

She said, “You did that yesterday”

I said, “I haven't finished yet”

Psychologists assert that being socially connected is essential for mental health. More often than not happily retired couples have active social lives with lots of friends. Women seem to grasp this and they are generally more socially integrated, having more and stronger emotional ties to friends and family. Men tend to find retirement more difficult than women primarily because they have not bothered to invest deeply in relationships, early enough in their lives. Men may also become over dependent and possibly over demanding on their spouse to keep them socially connected post retirement.

Through your working lives you would have both been preoccupied with your work and with the children. The first change you will notice will be when your children leave home to study after school. Whether they go to college in your country or go overseas, they have started their flight out of your home and their journey that will make them soar in their lives. This will be the first adjustment that most couples have to surmount as they are faced with the prospect of becoming “empty nesters”. However with a busy work and social schedule, both of you are able to handle this change reasonably well.

The second major adjustment happens when you retire. Suddenly both of you are now at home and while you try and make adjustments, both of you need space in your relationship. Forget all the issues you may have had between the two of you and look at your spouse as your companion for the rest of your life. Finding another companion who is willing to accept your idiosyncrasies and your faults and continue to live with you under the same roof will be very hard.

Plan, but don’t over plan or over schedule your daily routine or the time with each other. Leave time to do the unexpected or to just hang out.

You may actually begin to enjoy having your retired spouse around and look forward to their companionship for many more years ahead!

*******************

The author is the founder Chairman of Guardian Pharmacies and the author of 5 best-selling books, Reboot. Reinvent. Rewire: Managing Retirement in the 21st Century; The Corner Office; An Eye for an Eye; The Buck Stops Here - Learnings of a #Startup Entrepreneur and The Buck Stops Here – My Journey from a Manager to an Entrepreneur.

Twitter: @gargashutosh

Instagram: ashutoshgarg56

Blog: ashutoshgargin.wordpress.com | ashutoshgarg56.blogspot.com

इच्छामृत्यु (लिविंग विल)

शब्दकोश में इच्छा रहते हुए अपनी वसीयत कर जाने को इस तरह से परिभाषित किया गया है कि "एक व्यक्ति की इच्छाओं के ब्योरे का लिखित कथन, जो भविष्य के चिकित्सा उपचार की परिस्थितियों के बारे में सूचित कर दें, विशेष रूप से एक अग्रिम निर्देश तब के लिए जब वे सहमति व्यक्त करने में सक्षम नहीं होंगे।”

इच्छामृत्यु (लिविंग विल) और उससे जुड़े मुद्दों पर बहस बीच-बीच में होती रहती है और वह भी केवल सतही तौर पर और फिर उस पर बाद में फिर कभी चर्चा के लिए कहकर विषय पर “मिट्टी डाल” दी जाती है मानो किसी दिन सारे तर्क या प्रभावित परिवारों की ज़रूरतें अपने आप किसी अधिक स्वीकार्य कथा में बदल जाएंगी। भारत में लगभग छह साल पूर्व ही उन लोगों के जीवन को खत्म करने के एक वैधानिक विकल्प के रूप में निष्क्रिय हो जाने पर इच्छामृत्यु को स्वीकार किया गया था जो मृतप्राय स्थिति में पहुंच गए हो।

सुप्रीम कोर्ट ने 10 अक्टूबर 2017 को इच्छामृत्यु की अवधारणा की जाँच करने का फैसला किया। सरकार का कहना है कि अभी तक इच्छामृत्यु के फायदे और नुकसान की जाँच होना शेष है, क्योंकि ऐसा लगता है कि भारत की सांस्कृतिक, धार्मिक और कानूनी व्यवस्था को देखते हुए  इच्छामृत्यु का यह मामला बहुत जटिल है। इसलिए, पिछली कई सरकारों की तरह, इस सरकार को भी इस विषय पर लगता है कि तूफ़ान आने पर "शुतुरमुर्ग की तरह" दृष्टिकोण अपना लेना आज की वास्तविकता के लिए सबसे उपयुक्त है।

                                                              

यदि सबसे अच्छे कानूनी दिग्गज इस मुद्दे की लाभ-हानि पर बहस करेंगे तो उन सभी परिवारों की समस्या का समाधान दे सकेंगे, जिनके पास ऐसे हालात में अपने प्रियजनों का साथ देते रहने के लिए पर्याप्त वित्तीय साधन नहीं होते हैं, आइए हमारी सांस्कृतिक और धार्मिक सोच को देखते हुए एक भावनात्मक परिप्रेक्ष्य से इच्छामृत्यु की अवधारणा की जाँच करें। इसके अलावा, यह भी देखना होगा कि परिवार के सदस्यों को भारी चिकित्सा लागतों को सहन करना पड़ता है। साथ ही, उन्हें निश्चित कानूनी लागतों का भुगतान भी करना होगा और तो और पहले से ही काम का अधिक बोझ झेल रही अदालतों से अनुमोदन प्राप्त करने का प्रयास करना होगा।

जब किसी परिवार का सदस्य कोमा में चला जाता है तो उन परिवारों की अधिकांश बचत खर्च हो जाती है और कई मामलों में जीवन रक्षक उपकरणों से इलाज को जारी रखने के लिए उन्हें अपनी परिसंपत्तियों को बेचना पड़ता है। वे समझ जाते हैं कि उनके प्रियजनों के बचने की कोई उम्मीद नहीं है, लेकिन चिकित्सा सहायता न देने के सामाजिक कलंक से बचने का रास्ता उन्हें वित्तीय विनाश की ओर लेता चला जाता है। क्या अस्वस्थ रोगी, जवान या बूढ़ा, चाहता है कि परिवार के सभी सदस्य अपनी सारी जमा-पूँजी ख़त्म कर दें और अपनी संपत्ति बेच दें? सरकारी स्वामित्व वाले चिकित्सा महाविद्यालयों के बाहर दवा बेचने वाले अनैतिक दुकानदारों के हजारों उदाहरण होंगे जिनका पूरा ध्यान इस ओर होता है कि कैसे रोगियों के लिए बहुत आवश्यक लेकिन व्यर्थ दवा की बदौलत उन रिश्तेदारों की संपत्ति प्राप्त कर सकें। वित्तीय हानि के अतिरिक्त, हमें परिवार के सदस्यों की महत्वपूर्ण समय प्रतिबद्धता और प्रभावित परिवार के सदस्यों पर उससे होने वाले भावनात्मक प्रभाव को भी देखना चाहिए।

यदि डॉक्टरों का एक समूह प्रमाणित करता है कि, उस व्यक्ति के ठीक होने और कोमा से बाहर आने की संभावना नहीं है, तो क्या उस व्यक्ति को पीड़ा से और परिवार को वित्तीय बर्बाद होने से मुक्त करने के लिए यह स्वीकार्य नहीं होना चाहिए?

जब हम इच्छामृत्यु की योग्यता पर बहस करेंगे, हमें इच्छामृत्यु के दस्तावेज को निर्देशों के एक संच के रूप में भी देखना चाहिए, जिसे हम हमारे प्रियजनों के लिए अपने पीछे छोड़ना चाहते हैं। हमारे कानूनी दिग्गजों और हमारी सरकार के हित के लिए, हम अपनी इच्छामृत्यु को इस तरह भी परिभाषित कर सकते हैं कि यह हमारी “स्वास्थ्य सुरक्षा के लिए अग्रिम निर्देश और स्वास्थ्य सुरक्षा प्रतिनिधि की नियुक्ति" की तरह है। इस दस्तावेज को तब लागू किया जाएगा जब हम में से कोई मृत्यु शैया पर होगा या लाइलाज चोट या बीमारी हो या यदि हम में से कोई स्थायी रूप से अवचेतन में चला जाए, जिसे कि दो चिकित्सकों द्वारा प्रमाणित किया गया हो।

हम अपने इस स्वास्थ्य सुरक्षा के लिए अग्रिम निर्देश और स्वास्थ्य सुरक्षा प्रतिनिधि के नियुक्ति दस्तावेज को हमारे सामान्य वसीयतनामे से जोड़ सकते हैं और दस्तावेज की एक प्रतिलिपि अपने बेटों को उनके ज्ञान और अभिलेख के लिए भेज दें।

यह दस्तावेज़ हमारे परिवार के सदस्यों को हमारा स्वास्थ्य देखभाल प्रतिनिधि बनने के लिए अधिकृत करता है और निम्नलिखित बिंदुओं की रूपरेखा करता है:

                                                  

1.     अधिकांश भारतीय परिवार मौत के मामले पर अपने बुजुर्गों के साथ बैठकर बात नहीं करते हैं। इस तरह की बात करना अच्छा नहीं माना जाता है। इसलिए, जब कोई व्यक्ति गुज़र जाता है, तो कोई भी नहीं जानता कि अंतिम संस्कार कैसे किया जाना चाहिए। कैसे उन लोगों का अंतिम संस्कार किया जा सकता है, परिवार के सदस्यों को अब कुछ-कुछ जानकारी हो रही है कि क्या अंतिम संस्कार पारंपरिक लकड़ी की चिता दहन से किया जाए या बिजली के श्मशान का उपयोग करना चाहिए। इच्छामृत्यु यह परिभाषित कर सकती है कि मैं अपने पर कैसे संस्कार करना चाहता/ चाहती हूँ और मेरी राख के साथ क्या करना चाहिए।

2.     अंग और नेत्र दान को अब हमारे देश में स्वीकृति प्राप्त हो रही है। दान प्रारूपों पर हस्ताक्षर ले लिए जाते हैं लेकिन परिवारों को संप्रेषित नहीं किया जाता है। कई बार ऐसा होता है कि मृतक के रिश्तेदारों को पता नहीं होता  और इसलिए समय पर कार्रवाई नहीं हो पाती है। इच्छामृत्यु में इन निर्देशों को सावधानीपूर्वक परिभाषित किया जा सकता है।

3.     यह दस्तावेज चिकित्सा व्ययों को कैसे पूरा किया जा सकता है, उसके धन स्रोतों को भी परिभाषित कर सकता है। आईटी वाले स्पष्ट रूप से बता सकता हैं कि हमारी बचत और धन का उपयोग किया जाएँ बजाए कि परिवार के सदस्यों को बोझ होने के।

इच्छामृत्यु के मामले में त्वरित निर्णय लेने ज़रूरत है और इन शर्तों को एक कानून में बाँधना महत्वपूर्ण है। हालाँकि " दुष्प्रयोग और दुरुपयोग" के बहाने निर्णय लेने में देरी करना आसान है। क़ानून बनाने वालों को उन परिवारों की ओर देखना चाहिए जिसका कोई रिश्तेदार बीमार है और उन पर  भारी वित्तीय और भावनात्मक बोझ पड़ रहा है। प्रणाली का दुरुपयोग न हो सकें इसके प्रबंधन पर कानून को ध्यान केंद्रित करना चाहिए न कि खुद प्रणाली पर। इस बात का ध्यान रखा जाना  चाहिए कि मंजूरी और अनुमोदन देने की अनुचित शक्ति नौकरशाहों या न्यायपालिका को न मिल सकें, जो इसे पीड़ित परिवारों की तकलीफ़ को बढ़ाने के लिए एक और शक्ति केंद्र में बदल सकती हैं।

हाँ, चमत्कार होते हैं। एक चमत्कार "एक असाधारण और स्वागत योग्य घटना के रूप में परिभाषित किया जाता है उसे प्राकृतिक या वैज्ञानिक नियमों द्वारा स्पष्ट नहीं किया जा सकता है और इसलिए उसे ईश्वरीय ताकत पर छोड़ दिया जाता है।"

लेकिन ऐसे चमत्कारों की प्रतीक्षा के लिए कितनी कीमत चुकानी है?

*******************

लेखक गार्डियन फार्मेसीज के संस्थापक अध्यक्ष हैं। वे 5 बेस्ट सेलर पुस्तकों – रीबूट- Reboot. रीइंवेन्ट Reinvent. रीवाईर Rewire: 21वीं सदी में सेवानिवृत्ति का प्रबंधन, Managing Retirement in the 21st Century; द कॉर्नर ऑफ़िस, The Corner Office; एन आई फ़ार एन आई An Eye for an Eye; द बक स्टॉप्स हीयर- The Buck Stops Here – लर्निंग ऑफ़ अ # स्टार्टअप आंतरप्रेनर और Learnings of a #Startup Entrepreneur and द बक स्टॉप्स हीयर- माय जर्नी फ़्राम अ मैनेजर टू ऐन आंतरप्रेनर, The Buck Stops Here – My Journey from a Manager to an Entrepreneur. के लेखक हैं।

ट्विटर : @gargashutosh                                      

इंस्टाग्राम : ashutoshgarg56                                      

ब्लॉग : ashutoshgargin.wordpress.com | ashutoshgarg56.blogspot.com