The
year 2017 is coming to an end with the results of the last two elections in
Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. While the results in Himachal were never in
doubt, I had predicted BJP’s win in Gujarat on 1st December 2017. My
logic was that while the voter in Gujarat was angry with the BJP because of
demonetization, GST and some arrogance after 22 years in power, the voter would
decide not to exercise his franchise rather than vote against the BJP. This would
be the voter’s way of lodging their protest. This was the reason we saw a dip
of 2.91% in the voter turnout in 2017 (68.41%) as compared to 2012 (71.32%).
Barring the state of Punjab, the Congress has lost every election in 2017.
The
actual seat numbers have gone back and forth since counting started at 8 am and
one stage it was actually felt that the Congress may be able to form the
Government in Gujarat, resulting is a steep drop in the stock markets and
celebrations at the Congress headquarters.
While
the final tally will be known in due course, the overall results are now out
and the BJP has got about 107 seats while the Congress has managed to get 75
seats, thus ensuring that the BJP will form the Government once again in
Gujarat. While the Congress is claiming a victory in its defeat, the BJP should
take comfort in the fact that they have managed anti-incumbency without its
tallest leader Mr Modi directly leading the state as its Chief Minister.
Further, despite the reduction in its seats, the vote share of the BJP has
actually increased by 2 percent to 50 percent.
Shiv
bhakt, Rahul Gandhi with his “trishul” of Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and
Jignesh Mevani fought a valiant battle. While individually they did make an
impact on BJP’s vote share, they were from such disparate ideologies that no
matter how hard they tried, the voter could not identify with them on a common
platform. With no other Congress leader canvassing, the voter was left
wondering if his fate was going to be thrust into the waiting hands of the
“trishul” leaders.
Everyone
is talking about how, under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi (without crediting
the three “trishul” leaders), they have managed to increase their seat tally. This
is being seen as a moral victory for Rahul Gandhi. No one is discussing the
reasons why the Congress, sitting in power in Himachal Pradesh, has been
decimated completely. From a policy of appeasement to reaching out to every
Hindu God to making harsh personal remarks against the Prime Minister, the
Congress tried it all, unsuccessfully, in these elections.
After
this performance of the Congress, while knives would have been out for any
other leader, the Congress spokespersons are busy crafting excuses to support
the newly anointed 47 ½ year old “youth” leader. After all, as Mani Shankar
Iyer candidly stated "Was there an election when Jahangir
succeeded Shah Jahan? Was there any election when Aurangzeb became the emperor
after Shah Jahan? It was known that the Badshah's son would become the
emperor". Friendly television anchors have already started building the
case for the “potential” of the youth emperor in the elections ahead. Rahul
Gandhi, version 2.0 is now expected to take a much more aggressive stance and
provide the much-needed leadership to his struggling party.
The
results in 2017 clearly demonstrate that the Congress is working hard to
achieve the Prime Minister’s “Congress Mukt Bharat” faster than he could ever
have imagined or hoped for!
The
states of Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh,
Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Rajasthan and Tripura will go to the polls in
2018. While the BJP has already got into election mode in the north-eastern
states, the Congress, once it stops the rejoicing on the appointment of their
new leader and their victory in the loss of Gujarat, needs to quickly get its
act together. Gloating about Gujarat elections and listening to the obsequious
comments of some leaders will do more harm than good.
The noise on EVM
tampering has reduced significantly because Congress has better results than
they expected in Gujarat. The impact or lack of EVM tampering in Himachal
Pradesh is not the cause for any discussion.
It is a matter of time before the shrill voices on collusion between the
BJP and the Election Commission will start rising to crescendo once again as
the Congress and other opposition parties start to sense their vulnerability in
other elections. What needs to be noted is that the Election Commission is a
constitutional body and questioning its intent should be taken as seriously as
“contempt of court” with appropriate action on those making such allegations.
The
system of our democracy is the “first one past the post wins the election” – while
a huge victory is definitely better than a smaller victory, a win is a win.
Dr
Rajendra Prasad, the first President of India, once famously recalled “shortly
before his death Mahatma Gandhi had told us that after attainment of Swaraj,
the Congress, whose objective was to attain it, should convert itself into an
organisation of a non-political nature whose function would be like that of a
Seva Samiti, working on non-party lines for the service of all.”
The
Congress, under the leadership of its new president, needs to do some serious
“chintan” and soul searching on who its voter constituency is and where it
wishes to be in the next fifty years.
*******************
The author is the founder Chairman of
Guardian Pharmacies and the author of 5 best-selling books, Reboot. Reinvent.
Rewire: Managing Retirement in the 21st Century; The Corner Office; An Eye for
an Eye; The Buck Stops Here - Learnings of a #Startup Entrepreneur and The Buck
Stops Here – My Journey from a Manager to an Entrepreneur.
Twitter: @gargashutosh
Instagram: ashutoshgarg56
Blog: ashutoshgargin.wordpress.com |
ashutoshgarg56.blogspot.com
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