Elections 2019 – BJP’s Development and Growth versus Congress’ Loan Waivers

The BJP has lost 3 key state elections and the Congress has suddenly gained some new momentum. Let us look at what are the key challenges that need to be addressed before the next round of Lok Sabha elections. 

Is it going to be the economic successes of the country? Is it going to be GST? Will it be demonetisation or will it be the incredible success India has had internationally, thus making a very large number of Indians proud? Will it be about the infrastructure development all across the country?

The opposition parties and more particularly Rahul Gandhi know that they have no way to compete with the Prime Minister and the BJP as far as economic success is concerned nor can they question all the achievements in the last 4 years.

Therefore, the only thing they can do is to change the narrative completely and what is this narrative going to be? All the previous allegations of the Gujarat riots have not worked. The name calling and abusing Mr Modi is not getting the voters to change their mind. Personal allegations and innuendos against the prime minister are not working.

They need to somehow, make some corruption charges stick. The Rafale deal which seemed promising to the Congress, though the opposition leaders did not echo the same, has been dismissed by the supreme court of the country. Rahul Gandhi and his bunch of merry men cannot find a single corruption charge against any cabinet minister of this Government,

So, they have resorted to what the Congress has always done well.

Use the state exchequer to write off farm loans.

Waiving farm loans makes a very good story and this is going to be a major agenda that Rahul Gandhi is going to shout out loud for the next few months. The first decision the Chief Ministers of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh have done is to announce loan write offs. It is another thing that in the state of Karnataka Rs 44,000 crores has been written off and only 800 farmers have benefited while the large majority of Rs 2.50 lakhs poor farmers are waiting patiently for their turn after the wealthy farmers have benefited from the largesse of Mr Gandhi’s plans. The story in the other 3 states will not be aby different and wealthy farmers will take away all the money.

Mr Gandhi does not understand, nor does he care about what loan waivers will do to the economy of the states they are managing. He knows that when these Congress run States with huge loan waivers run in to financial distress all that he will do, in a Kejriwalesque manner, is to blame the Prime Minister.

He will not hesitate to martyr himself and say that he wanted to help the farmers, but the central government does not care. What he does not seem to understand is that loan waivers are repetitive and every few years loans will need to be waived. Since his announcement to waive loans, even the good farmers have stopped repaying banks. The size of the loan waiver is estimated at Rs 1.64 lakh crores or almost USD 25 billion! I wonder if he will waive all housing loans and vehicle loans below a certain limit! After all there is no difference in the distress loans cause to the families who take them.

Mr Gandhi is so desperate that he will do anything to get a foot in the door into the very powerful top job on the country. All the senior leaders who surround him understand the problem but have bowed down in front of the raw ambition of the young Gandhi scion.

Mr Gandhi will not talk about any scheme to develop more jobs because he has no idea how to do that once his party is in power. After all the situation of Amethi and Rae Bareli and the pathetic state of development is there for everyone to see. He also knows that there are no quick fixes to create new jobs.

Rahul Gandhi’s strategy is simple. If he wins, he has 5 years to try and correct the damage caused by these loan waivers. If he loses, the problem has to be sorted out by the winner! Rahul Gandhi is waiting to throw away all the hard-earned reserves of the country to get elected at any cost.

For Rahul Gandhi victory does not only mean a possibility of the top job if he is able to convince his mahagathbandhan but also the only opportunity for self-preservation for him and his family who are mired in all kinds of corruption controversies.

Public memory is very short and the four states (including Karnataka) that the BJP has lost this year can very easily swing back to them in the Lok Sabha elections if the BJP leaders stop talking about the past, look forward and talk about development coupled with loan waivers.

So, what should the BJP do in the run up to the Lok Sabha elections knowing fully well that it is critical for Mr Modi to be voted back to power to continue the agenda of development and long-term sustainable growth?

1. BJP needs to wrest the initiative back from Rahul Gandhi and if necessary, announce loan waivers as well. If this is the only way the electorate can be wooed, so be it. Rahul Gandhi will desperately attempt to take credit for all loan waivers and this needs to be countered very strongly.
2. For the middle class, a reduction in income tax must be implemented in the coming budget.
3. The MSME sector needs easier credit terms and this must be made available sooner than later.
4. The corporate sector needs to be wooed and a reduction in corporate taxes will help. GST has been accepted and is delivering good results for the corporate sector.
5. It is good to see senior BJP ministers coming out and talking about their achievements. For the first 4 years there was almost no communication between the government and a very large section of the English-speaking press. It is important to make sure that all members of the press, irrespective of their loyalties are wooed by the BJP
6. It is also critical for the BJP to bring back the key alliance partners like the Shiv Sena. They need to ensure the Akali Dal, Mr Paswan and Mr Nitish Kumar continue to support them. The political equations are changing in Tamilnadu and therefore the BJP needs to seal a quick alliance with Rajnikanth since the other superstar, Kamal Haasan seems to have gone with the Congress. Andhra Pradesh has gone with KCR and it is important to ensure that the BJP gets into a pre-poll alliance in this state.
7. Finally, all the affiliated organisations must understand the need to win the elections and therefore stop any diversionary issues including vigilantism of any kind. These leaders must also make sure that they do not speak of anything controversial and focus on a single point agenda of talking about all the incredible development that has been done under the leadership of Mr Modi. The unnecessary rhetoric must stop.

BJP think tanks must remember that perceptions are far more important as we get closer to elections.

These measures may go against the thinking of the BJP Government, but it is necessary to win and difficult decisions need to be taken.

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The author is an Executive Coach and an Angel Investor. A keen political observer, he is also the founder Chairman of Guardian Pharmacies. He is the author of 6 best-selling books, The Brand Called You; Reboot. Reinvent. Rewire: Managing Retirement in the 21st Century; The Corner Office; An Eye for an Eye; The Buck Stops Here - Learnings of a #Startup Entrepreneur and The Buck Stops Here – My Journey from a Manager to an Entrepreneur.

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